Exploring Productivity Dynamics and Drivers among Maize Farmers in Nigeria

Abstract

This study investigated productivity dynamics among maize farmers in Nigeria using panel data from the General Household Survey (GHS-P) Waves 1 and 4. Farmers were classified into low, medium, and high productivity categories using a Total Factor Productivity (TFP) index. Between Wave 1 and Wave 4, the share of farmers in the high productivity group increased from 38.20% to 42.11% indicating moderate progress, while those in the low productivity group declined from 39.56% to 32.77%. Tobit regression results revealed that access to credit, mobile phones, and remittances significantly enhanced productivity, while non-farm enterprise participation and increased farming experience negatively affected it. The findings suggested that engagement in non-farm activities diluted farm efficiency, and older farmers were less inclined to adopt new technologies. Markov transition analysis showed both upward and downward mobility, with many farmers remaining in low-productivity states due to systemic constraints. Based on these insights, the study recommended that policymakers should have strengthened agricultural extension systems to promote the adoption of modern technologies, encouraged the formation of farmer cooperatives to reduce input costs, addressed the trade-offs between non-farm and farm activities through integrated livelihood strategies, and expanded rural financial and digital infrastructure to improve access to resources and information for sustainable productivity growth.