Forecasting Sorghum Production in Nigeria – A Box-Jenkins Approach

Abstract

Sorghum remains a thinly traded commodity in Nigeria due to several disincentives like declining production,
poor linkage to international markets and poor market information. Most of Nigeria's huge sorghum
production is thus used for household consumption and as fodder. This investigation provided a forecast of the
output of sorghum for Nigeria up to 2022 using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA)
method based on time series data spanning the period 1961 – 2013 disaggregated into three different eras (1961
– 1986, 1986 – 2013, and 1991-2013). The different policy scenarios of Regulation, Structural Adjustment and
Liberalization which the Country has experienced over the years were also stimulated. Overall, output of
sorghum maintained an upward trend over the years. However, output predictions were highest for the analysis
using the Structural Adjustment policy era. It was concluded that following the ideals of the Structural
Adjustment Programme, especially in the area of realizing the potentials the Country has for sorghum exports
will greatly increase production and generate much needed foreign exchange for the Nigerian economy. Also,
channels for access to international markets for local producers have to be opened and sustained. The market
information on sorghum should be made available while processing activities for more value-added
production of sorghum be encouraged.